Why the biggest teams aren’t always the best bet

If you’re going to place a wager on football, there are many reasons why you might think that betting on one of the top-ranked teams is a good idea. After all, the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers have a solid record of winning. They have the some of the best players currently, a strong history, as well as thousands of loyal supporters that make life difficult for visiting teams (when they’re playing at home). That must mean they’re worth putting money on, right?

The answer is sometimes, yes: but not always. The problem with betting on the big teams is their huge popularity, and the fact that so much money is at stake when they win or lose. The bookies know that most punters bet on these big teams, and they aren’t in the business of giving money away if they can help it. For this reason, the odds they offer on those teams will be thoroughly researched, analyzed and calculated to make sure there is absolutely no chance that the teams will be undervalued and end up winning more often than the odds suggest.

Looking for value

If you want to seriously have a chance of coming out in profit when betting, you need to use the best NJ gambling apps, and you need to learn how to identify value. That means placing bets where the odds offered seem to underestimate a team’s chance of winning a given match. For the reasons given above, you are much less likely to find that kind of value with a team that seems destined for that season’s Super Bowl.

Of course, all bookmakers’ odds are intended to accurately reflect a team’s chances of winning. But because so much money is at stake, a crucial bit of extra effort goes into calculating the odds for the biggest teams. Artificial intelligence, complex algorithms and expert analysis are all used, along with number-crunching statistics, to make sure the bookies’ chances of losing money are minimized.

The importance of public opinion

It should also be remembered that odds change as more bets are placed. Bookies factor in public opinion as much as more rigorous analysis, and if lots of people stand to make money by predicting the winning team, you can be sure that the odds will change. The bookies assume that the punters know something they don’t and act accordingly. By definition, a popular team is almost never undervalued.

Where to bet instead

The way to find value and place a smart bet is to do your research. Dig deep into player stats, history, the latest news and so on, both on the team you’re thinking of backing and their opponents. You’re most likely to find odds that are less than the true value of a team by backing an underdog, but not always. Sometimes the trick is to look at matches between two less fancied teams, just because there won’t be so much money riding on them. 

With smaller teams, there is less information readily available. If you can get hold of that information, it gives you a real advantage. So consider looking away from the big teams in the spotlight this season and putting your money somewhere else. You just might be onto a winner.